CFB · 2026 betting profile
Mississippi State Bulldogs
4-1 straight up · 4-1 ATS · 3-2 over-under · #21 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameSat Oct 17, 12 PMESPNESPN Unlimited
at
22LSU Tigers
22LSU TigersSpreadMississippi State +15.5
Total57
Moneyline+500
Upcoming lines
Sat Oct 17, 12 PM
16Mississippi State4-1
22LSU4-2+15.5-15.5o57u57+500-715LSU -11moved 4.5 to LSUESPNESPN UnlimitedOpen LSU -11 · moved 4.5 to LSUESPNESPN UnlimitedSat Oct 24, 3:30 PM
Oklahoma3-216Mississippi State4-1No line yet–TV TBATV TBA
16Mississippi State4-122LSU4-2+15.5-15.5o57u57+500-715LSU -11moved 4.5 to LSUESPNESPN UnlimitedOpen LSU -11 · moved 4.5 to LSUESPNESPN UnlimitedSat Oct 24, 3:30 PMOklahoma3-216Mississippi State4-1No line yet–TV TBATV TBAOpen = the line when most books posted it for this week (Sunday night). A dash means we don't have that number.
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +6 |
| Home | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | -1.2 |
| Road | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +16.8 |
| Favorite | 3-0 | 100% | Small sample | +15.8 |
| Underdog | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | -8.8 |
| Conference | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | -4.7 |
| Non-conference | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +22 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +6 |
5 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-2 | 60% | Small sample | +9.3 |
| Home | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +11.2 |
| Road | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | +6.5 |
| Conference | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +9.5 |
| Non-conference | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | +9 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 60% | Small sample | +9.3 |
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | vs Alabama | L 23-56 | +5.5 | L -27.5 | 62.5 | O +16.5 |
| Sep 26 | vs Missouri | W 31-24 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 58.5 | U -3.5 |
| Sep 19 | at South Carolina | W 41-34 | +3 | W +10 | 59.5 | O +15.5 |
| Sep 12 | at Minnesota | W 38-13 | -1.5 | W +23.5 | 53.5 | U -2.5 |
| Sep 5 | vs UL Monroe | W 62-13 | -28.5 | W +20.5 | 54.5 | O +20.5 |
Close is Mississippi State's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | 3-2 | 60% | +6 |
| 2025 | 5-8 | 7-5 | 58% | Small sample | 7-6 | 54% | -2.1 |
| 2024 | 2-10 | 7-4 | 64% | Small sample | 7-4 | 64% | +3 |
| 2023 | 5-7 | 3-9 | 25% | Small sample | 6-5-1 | 55% | -4.9 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 7-5-1 | 58% | Small sample | 7-6 | 54% | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 7-6 | 54% | Small sample | 6-7 | 46% | -1.8 |
| 2020 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 40% | Small sample | 4-7 | 36% | -3.8 |
| 2019 | 6-7 | 5-8 | 38% | Small sample | 7-6 | 54% | -4.8 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.