CFB · 2026 betting profile
Louisville Cardinals
3-3 straight up · 4-2 ATS · 5-1 over-under · #28 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameSat Oct 17, 7:30 PMACC NetworkESPN Unlimited
at
Syracuse Orange
Syracuse OrangeSpreadLouisville -14.5
Total55.5
Moneyline-700
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 4-2 | 67% | Small sample | +2.3 |
| Home | 3-1 | 75% | Small sample | +4.8 |
| Road | 0-1 | 0% | Small sample | -8.5 |
| Favorite | 3-2 | 60% | Small sample | +2.1 |
| Underdog | 1-0 | 100% | Small sample | +3.5 |
| Conference | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | +1 |
| Non-conference | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 60% | Small sample | +2.1 |
6 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 5-1 | 83% | Small sample | +10 |
| Home | 3-1 | 75% | Small sample | +8.2 |
| Road | 1-0 | 100% | Small sample | +2.5 |
| Conference | 3-1 | 75% | Small sample | +5 |
| Non-conference | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +20 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +7.1 |
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | vs Florida State | W 44-20 | -4 | W +20 | 60.5 | O +3.5 |
| Oct 3 | at NC State | L 28-31 | -5.5 | L -8.5 | 56.5 | O +2.5 |
| Sep 26 | vs Wake Forest | L 27-30 | -11.5 | L -14.5 | 57.5 | U -0.5 |
| Sep 19 | vs SMU | W 41-31 | -3 | W +7 | 57.5 | O +14.5 |
| Sep 11 | vs Villanova Wildcats | W 59-13 | -39.5 | W +6.5 | 56.5 | O +15.5 |
| Sep 6 | vs Ole Miss | L 38-41 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 54.5 | O +24.5 |
Close is Louisville's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 67% | Small sample | 5-1 | 83% | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 4-9 | 31% | Small sample | 6-7 | 46% | -2.1 |
| 2024 | 9-4 | 7-6 | 54% | Small sample | 9-4 | 69% | +4.4 |
| 2023 | 10-4 | 6-7-1 | 46% | Small sample | 7-7 | 50% | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 8-5 | 62% | Small sample | 4-9 | 31% | +5.8 |
| 2021 | 6-7 | 6-7 | 46% | Small sample | 6-7 | 46% | +2.2 |
| 2020 | 4-7 | 5-6 | 46% | Small sample | 7-4 | 64% | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 8-5 | 62% | Small sample | 9-4 | 69% | +2.1 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.