CFB · 2026 betting profile
Florida State Seminoles
3-3 straight up · 2-3-1 ATS · 2-4 over-under · #44 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameSat Oct 17, 7 PMESPNESPN Unlimited
at
3Miami Hurricanes
3Miami HurricanesSpreadFlorida State +20.5
Total56.5
Moneyline+950
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-3-1 | 40% | Small sample | -2.5 |
| Home | 1-2-1 | 33% | Small sample | +0.1 |
| Road | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | -7.8 |
| Favorite | 0-2 | 0% | Small sample | -16 |
| Underdog | 2-1-1 | 67% | Small sample | +4.2 |
| Conference | 1-1-1 | 50% | Small sample | +4.2 |
| Non-conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -9.2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2-1 | 50% | Small sample | -0.3 |
6 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
CFB (FBS), 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games)
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-4 | 33% | Small sample | +1.2 |
| Home | 0-4 | 0% | Small sample | -8 |
| Road | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +19.5 |
| Conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -1.5 |
| Non-conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | +3.8 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | +1.9 |
CFB (FBS), 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing total (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games)
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | at Louisville | L 20-44 | +4 | L -20 | 60.5 | O +3.5 |
| Oct 3 | vs Virginia | W 38-7 | +1.5 | W +32.5 | 51.5 | U -6.5 |
| Sep 26 | vs Central Arkansas Bears | W 34-7 | -45.5 | L -18.5 | 62.5 | U -21.5 |
| Sep 19 | at Alabama | L 36-50 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 50.5 | O +35.5 |
| Sep 7 | vs SMU | L 24-27 | +3 | P PK | 52.5 | U -1.5 |
| Aug 29 | vs New Mexico State | W 34-17 | -30.5 | L -13.5 | 53.5 | U -2.5 |
Close is Florida State's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3-3 | 2-3-1 | 40% | Small sample | 2-4 | 33% | -2.5 |
| 2025 | 5-7 | 5-7 | 42% | Small sample | 6-6 | 50% | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 2-10 | 3-9 | 25% | Small sample | 3-9 | 25% | -10.8 |
| 2023 | 13-1 | 8-6 | 57% | Small sample | 8-6 | 57% | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 10-3 | 8-5 | 62% | Small sample | 7-6 | 54% | +4.7 |
| 2021 | 5-7 | 6-6 | 50% | Small sample | 4-8 | 33% | -0.5 |
| 2020 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 33% | Small sample | 6-3 | 67% | -7.8 |
| 2019 | 6-7 | 4-8-1 | 33% | Small sample | 5-7 | 42% | -3.3 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.