NFL · 2026 betting profile
Buffalo Bills
4-1 straight up · 4-1 ATS · 4-1 over-under · #6 of 32 in our ratings
Next gameSun Oct 18, 4:25 PMCBSParamount+
at
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas RaidersSpreadBuffalo -4.5
Total53.5
Moneyline-240
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +1.1 |
| Home | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | -1.5 |
| Road | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +5 |
| Favorite | 3-1 | 75% | Small sample | -0.2 |
| Underdog | 1-0 | 100% | Small sample | +6.5 |
| Non-conference | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +1.1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +1.1 |
5 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
NFL, 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 73% of games)
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +10.1 |
| Home | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +4.2 |
| Road | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +19 |
| Non-conference | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +10.1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +10.1 |
NFL, 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing total (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 73% of games)
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | at Los Angeles | W 37-34 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 55.5 | O +15.5 |
| Oct 4 | vs New England | L 26-29 | -7 | L -10 | 49.5 | O +5.5 |
| Sep 27 | vs Los Angeles | W 24-16 | -7 | W +1 | 50.5 | U -10.5 |
| Sep 17 | vs Detroit | W 41-31 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 54.5 | O +17.5 |
| Sep 13 | at Houston | W 36-31 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 44.5 | O +22.5 |
Close is Buffalo's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | 4-1 | 80% | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 13-6 | 9-10 | 47% | Small sample | 10-9 | 53% | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 15-5 | 12-8 | 60% | Could be luck | 14-6 | 70% | +5.4 |
| 2023 | 12-7 | 8-11 | 42% | Small sample | 8-11 | 42% | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 14-4 | 8-10 | 44% | Small sample | 7-11 | 39% | +1 |
| 2021 | 12-7 | 10-8-1 | 56% | Small sample | 10-9 | 53% | +4 |
| 2020 | 15-4 | 12-7 | 63% | Small sample | 13-5-1 | 72% | +4.5 |
| 2019 | 10-7 | 9-8 | 53% | Small sample | 3-14 | 18% | +2.6 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.