CFB · 2026 betting profile
Michigan State Spartans
2-4 straight up · 3-2-1 ATS · 2-4 over-under · #66 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameSat Oct 17, 12 PMPeacock
vs
25Northwestern Wildcats
25Northwestern WildcatsSpreadMichigan State +7.5
Total49.5
Moneyline+240
Upcoming lines
Sat Oct 17, 12 PM
25Northwestern4-1
Michigan State2-4-7.5+7.5o49.5u49.5-300+240NU -10.5moved 3 to MSUPeacockOpen NU -10.5 · moved 3 to MSUPeacockSat Oct 24, TBAMichigan State2-4
12UCLA5-0No line yet–TV TBATV TBA
25Northwestern4-1Michigan State2-4-7.5+7.5o49.5u49.5-300+240NU -10.5moved 3 to MSUPeacockOpen NU -10.5 · moved 3 to MSUPeacockSat Oct 24, TBAMichigan State2-412UCLA5-0No line yet–TV TBATV TBAOpen = the line when most books posted it for this week (Sunday night). A dash means we don't have that number.
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-2-1 | 60% | Small sample | -1.3 |
| Home | 2-1-1 | 67% | Small sample | PK |
| Road | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | -4 |
| Favorite | 1-0-1 | 100% | Small sample | +5.2 |
| Underdog | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | -4.6 |
| Conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -10 |
| Non-conference | 2-0-1 | 100% | Small sample | +7.3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 60% | Small sample | -1.6 |
6 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-4 | 33% | Small sample | -1.3 |
| Home | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | +4 |
| Road | 0-2 | 0% | Small sample | -12 |
| Conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | +4.2 |
| Non-conference | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -6.8 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 20% | Small sample | -1.9 |
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | vs Illinois | L 37-38 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 48.5 | O +26.5 |
| Oct 3 | at Wisconsin | L 3-31 | +8.5 | L -19.5 | 43.5 | U -9.5 |
| Sep 26 | vs Nebraska | L 13-31 | +6 | L -12 | 48.5 | U -4.5 |
| Sep 19 | at Notre Dame | L 10-27 | +28.5 | W +11.5 | 51.5 | U -14.5 |
| Sep 12 | vs Eastern Michigan | W 35-7 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 49.5 | U -7.5 |
| Sep 4 | vs Toledo | W 30-20 | -10 | P PK | 48.5 | O +1.5 |
Close is Michigan State's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-4 | 3-2-1 | 60% | Small sample | 2-4 | 33% | -1.3 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 7-5 | 58% | Small sample | 7-5 | 58% | -2.3 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 4-8 | 33% | Small sample | 6-6 | 50% | -6.3 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 5-6-1 | 46% | Small sample | 5-7 | 42% | -5.2 |
| 2022 | 5-7 | 4-7-1 | 36% | Small sample | 5-7 | 42% | -9.2 |
| 2021 | 11-2 | 9-3-1 | 75% | Small sample | 7-6 | 54% | +4.3 |
| 2020 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 29% | Small sample | 5-2 | 71% | -6.4 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 4-9 | 31% | Small sample | 5-8 | 38% | -7.1 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.