CFB · 2026 betting profile
New Mexico State Aggies
2-4 straight up · 3-3 ATS · 2-4 over-under · #124 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameWed Oct 21, 8 PMESPN2ESPN Unlimited
at
Sam Houston Bearkats
Sam Houston BearkatsSpreadNew Mexico State -2.5
Total47.5
Moneyline-142
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-3 | 50% | Small sample | +2.2 |
| Home | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +4.8 |
| Road | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -0.3 |
| Favorite | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +13.5 |
| Underdog | 1-3 | 25% | Small sample | -3.4 |
| Conference | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | +3.8 |
| Non-conference | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | +1.5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | PK |
6 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
CFB (FBS), 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games)
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-4 | 33% | Small sample | -1.7 |
| Home | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +5.5 |
| Road | 0-3 | 0% | Small sample | -8.8 |
| Conference | 0-2 | 0% | Small sample | -15 |
| Non-conference | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | +5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | -1.5 |
CFB (FBS), 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing total (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games)
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | at Florida International | L 3-22 | +7 | L -12 | 46.5 | U -21.5 |
| Oct 1 | vs Western Kentucky | W 34-13 | -1.5 | W +19.5 | 55.5 | U -8.5 |
| Sep 26 | vs New Mexico | L 18-42 | +11.5 | L -12.5 | 47.5 | O +12.5 |
| Sep 12 | at Hawai'i | L 19-29 | +7.5 | L -2.5 | 50.5 | U -2.5 |
| Sep 5 | vs Mercyhurst Lakers | W 51-14 | -29.5 | W +7.5 | 52.5 | O +12.5 |
| Aug 29 | at Florida State | L 17-34 | +30.5 | W +13.5 | 53.5 | U -2.5 |
Close is New Mexico State's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 50% | Small sample | 2-4 | 33% | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 6-6 | 50% | Small sample | 5-7 | 42% | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 3-9 | 5-7 | 42% | Small sample | 7-5 | 58% | -1.9 |
| 2023 | 10-5 | 11-4 | 73% | Small sample | 5-10 | 33% | +5.6 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 7-6 | 54% | Small sample | 6-7 | 46% | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 2-10 | 7-5 | 58% | Small sample | 7-4-1 | 64% | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 2-10 | 5-7 | 42% | Small sample | 6-6 | 50% | -3.9 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.