NFL · 2026 betting profile
Denver Broncos
4-2 straight up · 4-2 ATS · 1-5 over-under · #12 of 32 in our ratings
Next gameSun Oct 25, 4:05 PMCBSParamount+
at
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona CardinalsLineNot posted yet
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 4-2 | 67% | Small sample | -1.6 |
| Home | 3-0 | 100% | Small sample | +4.3 |
| Road | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -7.5 |
| Favorite | 3-0 | 100% | Small sample | +3.3 |
| Underdog | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -6.5 |
| Non-conference | 4-2 | 67% | Small sample | -1.6 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +1.8 |
6 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
NFL, 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 73% of games)
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 1-5 | 17% | Small sample | -4.2 |
| Home | 1-2 | 33% | Small sample | -3.5 |
| Road | 0-3 | 0% | Small sample | -4.8 |
| Non-conference | 1-5 | 17% | Small sample | -4.2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 20% | Small sample | -4.7 |
NFL, 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing total (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 73% of games)
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | vs Seattle | W 17-14 | +3 | W +6 | 40.5 | U -9.5 |
| Oct 11 | at Los Angeles | W 23-17 | -3 | W +3 | 42.5 | U -2.5 |
| Oct 4 | at San Francisco | L 14-24 | +3 | L -7 | 48.5 | U -10.5 |
| Sep 27 | vs Los Angeles | W 30-26 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 44.5 | O +11.5 |
| Sep 20 | vs Jacksonville | W 20-13 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 45.5 | U -12.5 |
| Sep 14 | at Kansas City | L 10-31 | +2.5 | L -18.5 | 42.5 | U -1.5 |
Close is Denver's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4-2 | 4-2 | 67% | Small sample | 1-5 | 17% | -1.6 |
| 2025 | 15-4 | 9-10 | 47% | Small sample | 7-11 | 39% | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 10-8 | 12-5 | 71% | Small sample | 11-6 | 65% | +6.1 |
| 2023 | 8-9 | 6-10-1 | 38% | Small sample | 8-9 | 47% | -2.3 |
| 2022 | 5-12 | 7-10 | 41% | Small sample | 6-11 | 35% | -3.7 |
| 2021 | 7-10 | 8-9 | 47% | Small sample | 5-12 | 29% | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 5-11 | 9-7 | 56% | Small sample | 8-8 | 50% | -2.1 |
| 2019 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 56% | Small sample | 9-7 | 56% | +0.7 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.