NFL · 2026 betting profile
Washington Commanders
1-3 straight up · 2-3 ATS · 4-1 over-under · #30 of 32 in our ratings
Next gameMon Oct 19, 8:15 PMESPNESPN Unlimited
at
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ersSpreadWashington +7.5
Total51.5
Moneyline+325
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | -2.8 |
| Home | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | +3.5 |
| Road | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | -4.2 |
| Favorite | 0-1 | 0% | Small sample | -3.5 |
| Underdog | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | -2.6 |
| Non-conference | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | -2.8 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | -2.8 |
5 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +8.1 |
| Home | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +18 |
| Road | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +4 |
| Non-conference | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +8.1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 80% | Small sample | +8.1 |
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | vs New York | T 27-27 | -3.5 | L -3.5 | 41.5 | O +12.5 |
| Oct 4 | vs Indianapolis | L 13-30 | +4.5 | L -12.5 | 46.5 | U -3.5 |
| Sep 27 | vs Seattle | W 33-31 | +8.5 | W +10.5 | 40.5 | O +23.5 |
| Sep 20 | at Dallas | L 20-37 | +4.5 | L -12.5 | 51.5 | O +5.5 |
| Sep 13 | at Philadelphia | L 22-24 | +6 | W +4 | 43.5 | O +2.5 |
Close is Washington's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 40% | Small sample | 4-1 | 80% | -2.8 |
| 2025 | 5-12 | 7-10 | 41% | Small sample | 10-6 | 62% | -2.5 |
| 2024 | 14-6 | 13-7 | 65% | Could be luck | 13-7 | 65% | +3.6 |
| 2023 | 4-13 | 6-10-1 | 38% | Small sample | 10-7 | 59% | -6.9 |
| 2022 | 8-8 | 9-8 | 53% | Small sample | 5-11-1 | 31% | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 7-10 | 7-9-1 | 44% | Small sample | 7-10 | 41% | -2.1 |
| 2020 | 7-10 | 9-7-1 | 56% | Small sample | 6-10-1 | 38% | +3.4 |
| 2019 | 3-13 | 6-10 | 38% | Small sample | 7-9 | 44% | -3.2 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.