CFB · 2026 betting profile
Fresno State Bulldogs
4-2 straight up · 5-1 ATS · 3-3 over-under · #58 of 138 in our ratings
Next gameSat Oct 17, 10:30 PMCBSSN
at
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State AztecsSpreadFresno State -7.5
Total45.5
Moneyline-320
Against the spread
| Split | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 5-1 | 83% | Small sample | +8.1 |
| Home | 3-0 | 100% | Small sample | +10.5 |
| Road | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +5.7 |
| Favorite | 3-0 | 100% | Small sample | +14 |
| Underdog | 2-1 | 67% | Small sample | +2.2 |
| Conference | 2-0 | 100% | Small sample | +12 |
| Non-conference | 3-1 | 75% | Small sample | +6.1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 100% | Small sample | +13.2 |
6 graded games. Under 20 games, every split here is a small sample. Avg vs spread is the average margin against the closing number.
CFB (FBS), 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing spread (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games)
Over-under
| Split | O-U | Over % | Real or luck? | Avg vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 3-3 | 50% | Small sample | +1.8 |
| Home | 3-0 | 100% | Small sample | +15.8 |
| Road | 0-3 | 0% | Small sample | -12.2 |
| Conference | 1-1 | 50% | Small sample | +4 |
| Non-conference | 2-2 | 50% | Small sample | +0.8 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 60% | Small sample | +4.7 |
CFB (FBS), 2026 so far · regular season only · graded vs the closing total (ESPN odds archive, DraftKings for 70% of games)
Game log with closing lines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Close | ATS | Total | O-U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | vs Boise State | L 31-38 | +8.5 | W +1.5 | 48.5 | O +20.5 |
| Oct 3 | at Washington State | W 26-6 | +2.5 | W +22.5 | 44.5 | U -12.5 |
| Sep 26 | vs Rice | W 38-24 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 43.5 | O +18.5 |
| Sep 19 | at San José State | W 26-10 | -4 | W +12 | 47.5 | U -11.5 |
| Sep 12 | vs Sacramento State | W 49-3 | -17.5 | W +28.5 | 43.5 | O +8.5 |
| Sep 4 | at USC | L 0-39 | +21.5 | L -17.5 | 51.5 | U -12.5 |
Close is Fresno State's spread at kickoff, from ESPN's odds archive (DraftKings). ATS margin is how much they beat or missed the number by.
Season by season
| Season | SU | ATS | Cover % | Real or luck? | O-U | Over % | Avg vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4-2 | 5-1 | 83% | Small sample | 3-3 | 50% | +8.1 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 7-6 | 54% | Small sample | 5-8 | 38% | +4.6 |
| 2024 | 6-7 | 6-6 | 50% | Small sample | 5-7 | 42% | -2.7 |
| 2023 | 9-4 | 5-8 | 38% | Small sample | 7-5-1 | 58% | -3 |
| 2022 | 10-4 | 7-7 | 50% | Small sample | 7-7 | 50% | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 10-3 | 8-5 | 62% | Small sample | 6-7 | 46% | +2.9 |
| 2020 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 50% | Small sample | 3-3 | 50% | -2.3 |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 5-7 | 42% | Small sample | 8-3 | 73% | -5.5 |
Regular season and postseason, graded against the closing line. "Could be luck" means a coin flip could have done the same thing.